Children's Understanding of Probability

These resources, from the Nuffield Foundation, follow a previous study which reviewed the available research on how students learn mathematics. Probability is the focus here and this review, published in 2012, was commissioned to explore several aspects of the topic.

The starting point in this report on children’s understanding and learning about probability is the sheer variety of the kinds of reasoning that are needed to solve problems about chance and uncertainty.

Full report - identifies four cognitive demands made on students when learning about probability and examines several aspects of probability, drawing together evidence from the early years through to adulthood. Areas that have been relatively neglected and would benefit from further research are also identified.

The four cognitive demands include:

*Understanding randomness - looks at the nature and consequences of randomness and its use in everyday living.

*Working out the sample space - is not just a necessary part of the calculation of the probabilities of a particular event, but also an essential element in understanding the nature of probability.

*Comparing and quantifying probabilities - probabilities are quantities based on proportions, which have to be calculated to enable comparisons of the probabilities of two or more events.

*Understanding correlation - associations between two kinds of events, which could happen randomly, or could represent a genuine relationship.

Summary report - provides an overview of the four cognitive demands identified in the review and recommendations for future research.