Probability

The workbook contains two simulations designed to help students to understand what is meant by a random process and to give some idea of the likelihood of particular events occurring.

National Lottery Simulation: Students choose six different numbers in the range 1 to 49 inclusive. The simulation can be set to pause after every 10, 100, 1000 draws. A frequency table and bar chart displays the number of correct numbers in each draw and the players profit is displayed. Work card 2.1 leads students through the activity and sets further challenges.

Coupon collector simulation: investigates the variability in the number of packets needed to be bought in order complete a set. Students dictate the number of cards, from 1 to 20, required to complete a set. The cards collected are displayed, with a bar chart displaying how many of each card has been collected. The simulation indicates how many cards have to be bought in order to obtain a complete set of cards. Work card 2.2 leads students through the activity.

River: simulates the water level in a river, indicating how often the river runs dry or when in flood. Students set the probability that the river will rise next month and dictates whether just s a drought is counted as a disaster or whether floods and droughts are counted. The number of disasters and the mean time between the disasters is counted. Work card 2.3 leads students through the activity and sets further challenges.

Tree diagrams: is designed to help students understand how simple tree diagrams can be used to calculate probabilities, and how changing the initial probabilities affect the outcome. The simulation shows the results of a test for a disease which is not 100% reliable. Work card 2.4 leads students through the activity and sets further challenges.